What a Difference a Month Makes…

Discussion in 'Other KaW Discussion' started by Radagast, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. What a Difference a Month Makes…

    One month ago today the Kammunity braced for the unveiling of the new Osmon Rai lands. Being the inquisitive sort, I thought to myself “I wonder how the leaderboard will change?” So I jotted down the top 5 overall LB players, and their stats as of 3/31/16.

    They were:
    Silph 44/47/14/34, total 139.1M cs
    TakuniTheCat 62/70/11/11, total 153.8M cs
    Wooloolooop 61/67/2/19, total 149.2M cs
    Amie_Angel 29/29/1/65, total 123.2M cs
    hlneo 53/61/4/25, total 142.9M cs

    One month later, after much excitement, grinding, ally drops and upgrades the top 5 is now:
    Silph 196/212/14/78, total 500M cs
    TakuniTheCat 191/196/87/87, total 561M cs
    Wooloolooop 198/214/2/109, total 523M cs
    hlneo, 189/195/55/101, 540M cs
    Amie_Angel 195/195/1/119, total 510M cs

    No way!!! The top 3 are the same on 4 and 5 switched spots! Much excitement!

    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but I was hoping for a bit more of a shake-up. Being rather bored with the top 5, I expanded my review to the top 50. Of the top 50 overall I found the following interesting facts:

    -> 48 of the top 50 have over 500M cs
    -> The average total stats were 538M cs, the largest was 584M (___Lavenger___)
    -> The average SDT was 36M cs, the largest was 126M (BAD_Ass_MALANDRO)
    -> Cruiser Elite was hosting 6 of the top 50, Battlegrounds / Battlegrounds II hosted another 6
    and Sucker Punch had 4.
    -> 22 have more than 1M battle wins.
    -> The average total battle wins was 1,019k, the most was 1,899k (Silph).
    -> llll____TROY____llll had 1,865k losses!!! (I checked this three times to make sure I was
    reading this correctly), l__hereforyou__l had 382k losses and ----eric------ had 116k losses.
    Subtracting out these three punching bags, the average loss/win ratio of the other 47 was
    only 1.95%.
    -> Chaos, who achieved notoriety becoming the first BC spy within the first hour of the release
    isn’t even in the top 50.

    This was interesting and got me thinking, “Wow, I’ve been playing this game for 3.5 yrs, reset once, but was still ~1 year away from being BC before this last expansion was released. How do you people do it?”

    Sorry. No offense.

    Let’s do some math. Osmon Rai lands came out on March 31, 2016. The Abyss Lands came out on January 21, 2015, roughly 435 days before. Let’s assume for sake of argument that 15 months ago a top player 'pulled a Chaos' and became Abyss build complete immediately once the lands were released. This means they could theoretically have spent the next 435 days doing nothing but accumulating gold in advance of the eventual next expansion – Osmon Rai.

    This was what they did right? The conventional wisdom is that top players make so much money that once they’re BC they have more gold than they know what to do with and spend their days frolicking with the mage buying allies.

    But the Osmon Rai expansion costs 507T.

    More math.

    Right now I’m ~70M cs and make ~175B/day. I don’t max crystal or hang out in HTE clans but am quite active. I understand from the top players in my clan they were making ~250B/day before the expansion without max crystaling, dropping seals in HTE clans or ally trading. So let’s just double the earnings capacity to 500B/day (which I think is quite high and therefore conservative). 435 days between Abyss and Osmon Rai release * 500B/day = 218T, assuming you never banked.

    507T build complete costs less this potential 218T earnings capacity still leaves a 289T gap. So how was this gap crossed? I’m already giving credit for daily max crystaling and HTE in the generous 500B/day assumption. I can think of two things:
    1. The free gold the devs have been giving out through event rewards over the last year.
    2. Exchanging nobs for gold.

    The devs have been doing a nice job providing a much needed shot in the arm via bronze & silver bars event rewards over the last year or so. These windfalls allow for meaningful upgrades and keep player spirits high. The current event phase offers 2k silver bars (4.5T) for reaching the highest static reward tier. This is higher than prior events, but let’s assume there’s been 20 events where this level of rewards were offered and a player managed to achieve a top reward tier in each. (Again, conservative). 20 * 4.5T = 90T. The 289T gap is now down to 199T.

    How much would it cost to receive 199T via nobility exchange? Right now my exchange rate is 13.5B gold for 15 nobs. Again, let’s roughly double this to 30B to assume someone was already BC (remember the LB a month ago were roughly ~140M cs). 199,000,000 / 30,000 = 6,633 nobility points. 6,633/765 bulk nob purchase = 8.7 purchases * $75 = $650.


    So, as far as I can tell, the top 50 LB players (and likely the next 500?) have spent at a minimum $650 via nob purchases over the last month to have already attained BC. This is after the generous daily earnings and dev rewards assumptions and doesn’t account for crystal or HTE seal costs. Considering this, I would imagine the true BC costs are well in the thousands.

    The KAW devs and the rest of us thank you.

    Oh, and did I mention that llll____TROY____llll has 1,865k battle losses?

  2. You forgot one thing regarding the 289t gap, these leaderboard people volley allies everyday. Racking up absolutely crap tons of cash in next to no time.
  3. Yes, that is the one part missing.


    (1) You first have to have a massive amount of gold to meaningfully trade allies (where did this original gold come from?)

    (2) Someone gets hosed holding onto a grossly above market ally

    Unless of course you have a massive amount of alts and use them to earn event rewards, then volley a % of this gold to your main after each event.... Oh wait, was I not supposed to say that? :lol:
  4. Nice read Rad.
    For me, all this is another reason I'll never be BC :D
    But indeed.... thanks LB players (and other spenders) for financing this game.
  5. Dear Radagast,

    Please stop spilling Kaw secrets... Or we will be forced to send the Kaw Illuminati after you.
  6. Lots changed on the ally lb. The only important lb there is
  7. Huge respect for them supporting the game.
    I have a clue how much some spend and they earnt their stats. Both activity and money.

    Looking at these figures shows me how silly it seems that people argue about the prospect of equalising event item drops which over a two week period nets a max 2 tril in rewards for tier 13 , equate that to 24 events approx a year and that's a mere 48trillion up for grabs. Based on just rewards alone that's more than almost 11 years worth of top prizes just to clear osman lands. 5-6 years if you allow for smaller accounts earnings.
    And goodness knows how huge these players will rightly be by then and how many new lands will have come out.
    New players seeing the kind of growth top rewards offer would only be inclined to stay and spend as they see achievable growth and get snapped up as allies probably by these very same leaderboard players.

    And psssst yes, you were not supposed to say about alts.
    New players may make them too.
  8. Definitely on "the list" now..

    Rip Radagast
  9. What about ee boost and crux?

    Whatever the case, this was very well thought out and an excellent first-pass exploratory analysis of the lb spending habits.
  10. Nah he said Alts. Not alt bots 
  11. It bites that a lot of top 50 show so little in losses...
    Is that lack of WAR and OSW?
    Is it 1-3 yr players spending cash to get there?

    Also sad that there are quite a few players that hand off the account to a minion when they can not hit, be it sleep, family time etc. their account is always hitting.
  12. How many can hit them ?
  13. Before I read past the 1st 3 lines is it another whiny thread?
  14. My question is.. why was there no hype Osmon Rai hype train?

    Like they did with abyss? Remember the event and community event? The free spyglasses thingy that unlocked a land for free?

    Why was Osmon Rai so casually announced then released?
  15. Yes, another reason I was liberal with the 500B/day baseline earnings estimate - to account for crux runs during ZTA & 150% HTE promos. Taking full advantage of these runs generally requires crystaling, although the devs have been handing out crystals like candy too lately.

    And I generally always have ee running so that already helps contribute to my 175B/day.
  16. Oh

    Well, then looks like you covered it all. Good job!
  17. Does anyone have the stats on how many players are actually LCBC right now?
  18. A lot of LB accounts also have alts for gold banks, as I've been informed. This allows for smooth transfer of gold.

    So, figure this: lets just say a LB account has 2 other alt accounts used to help trade gold(using allies) to the main LB account. Considering the larger accounts can obviously build these alts pretty quickly, let's say the make on Average 250b per day, cutting it in half from the main. Those two combined make 500b a day.

    Meaning this:
    218t x 2 = 436t

    Then taking the 436t from 507t, that leaves 71t remaining.

    That's how Ive been told LB accounts do it almist instantly(according to my former LB friend).

    That was also not including silver bars. But you can do the rest. If that's how they do it, through ally transfers and such with alts.. It wouldn't be to difficult.
  19. Having seen what Chaos' nob to gold ratio is like (pitiful) balance of probability is that the $$$ is going to xtal purchases instead. As a full glitch unload on lotr with battle cry is going to net a lot more than nobility to gold would.

    In addition to all the free xtals going to the lb accounts for dominating the event leaderboard top spots.
  20. Jesus h christ ....get a life man