Theories on perm drop or treasure in CoD?????

I think it might have something to do with the overall activity of the player. In a few destroyers my clan did earlier on, every drop went to someone who was on at the time

So it might be like a lottery, and activity gives you tickets

 

This is not true. We have had people wake up to getting items after having gone to sleep before the EB was over.

 

This sounds like the best approach so far - at least from a pure data acquisition standpoint. I'm good with exel. I'll crunch the numbers if anyone knows how to put together the PDF stuff Belle is talking about. I can also perform the SS of the battle log.

The only issue with this method is that it might yield erroneous data because the battle log doesn't log every single hit. However, once we have enough EBs logged, this should hopefully clear itself out.

 

@belle

The battle logs don't contain a complete history of actions. It's quite abbreviated actually. For instance, during phase when the item regens (so it only takes 5-10 actions to re-clear the item) but in the battle log there will only be one action recorded, if at all.

So, while that can give an overall idea of what happened when. It's not a precise measurement of the actions that go on.

Sorry to burst that bubble

 

I unloaded 2x for a total of 60 actions and got the armor. I did not use pots. I didn't get any pot phases.

 

Mmm ... Even on PC it's abbreviated. If I do an unload and go back to count, it's missing actions. If I use exactly 5 items, it maybe captures one instance.

The closest alternative I can think of is if players report their units killed (if that is even a factor). On ios it flashes with the total on the bar right after you hammer the Repeat Action button and go back to the epic.

 



 

Completely random although i hve noticed that people who hit near the end seem to get it more

 

Does anyone else find it annoying that people don't read through the entire thread and repost things that have already been addressed - namely the fact that the drop "isn't completely random?"

I digress....

So my offer stands: I'm willing to do the heavy lifting on Belle's idea if anyone else is capable of the PDF editing she was referring to. Until then, I'm just gonna lurk this thread until someone steps up to volunteer.

Cheers.

 

CPG seems to suggest a very simple and elegant explanation. When each eb starts there are certain values on each bar that need to be "cleared". The computer could pick both a value and an action (attack or assasination) that would trigger an item or reward. Whoever hit at the preset trigger point had a "chance" at getting the item/treasure - if the action corresponded to the preset choice (atk/assassination), otherwise no item/treasure. This would be a very simple way for to programmatically set variables but combine it with user action to create a random drop.

Unfortunately if this were the model it could not be gamed as we would never know the numerical trigger or the corresponding action.

 

I disagree, actually. If CGP's suggestion is true, then discovering the trigger would be relatively simple.

Have the clan attack in waves: one member at a time. Have each member record the type of attack as well as the amount of damage they did and on which portion of the eb each attack type was done. Whoever gets the drop will share their record with the clan and have someone else try to follow the exact same attack sequence.

Another way you could track it would be to assign "teams" to certain sections of each eb health bar. If it becomes clear that there is a trend for a particular team to get the item, then you have narrowed your critical point down quite a bit. Once you have figured out which life bar causes the drop, you could break it down even further by assigning each fraction of the health bar to a particular team. Repeat this process until the exact point is located.

It has already been proven that throwing no pots has netted someone a drop, so there is no need to try to log pot throwing.

 

Cheese. Maybe I didn't explain it clearly. If at the start of every EB the KaW server selects a stage and point value that would drop an item or treasure then adds another variable such as the type of hit (atk/as) needed to trigger an item/treasure. If these simple selections were made and were different for every single individual eb started then the actual drop would be completely random.

The beauty of this model is that the real randomness is driven by the players behavior and easily explains why some eb's drop multiples or none.

If an item/treasure trigger is say 299707/500000 on phase 3 Corupt Guardians in FoD and the required corresponding action that would trigger the drop is an attack. Well if a player that didn't already have the item made a successful attack action that moved the meter below the trigger then they would get the item. If a player already had it or they assassinated instead of atk then no item dropped.

This would also be any easy way to program it as it would just be a query lookup in the servers battle log at the end of the eb to verify if drop conditions were met or not.

 

Belle-

Devs said in wc a few weeks ago that it is not *totally* random, it is random, but your activity in the EB can increase your chances.

Personally, I would make a totally crude guess and throw numbers out with an example like this-- total shot in the dark-- FoD each person has a 2% chance to get the sword and for every 100 actions it raises it by 0.1% so with 500 actions you'd have a 2.5% chance and with 1000 actions you'd have a 3% chance and so on. Totally hypothetical but I tend to think that's how it works and also that my numbers might not be too far off.

Some folks theorize that finishing the EB quicker increases the chances of rewards. Others say that is totally baseless. Some folks say actions matter, others say its totally random and actions are irrelevant (even tho devs said otherwise in wc).

The sad fact is, the only way to try and test this stuff is to do a series of lots and lots of test runs of an EB and track all the parameters-- who got which item/treasure, how many actions did they have, how much plunder did they have, how quickly was the EB completed-- and then try and draw a statistical trend from all the data you collect. Unfortunately I would say you'll probably need at least a hundred or two hundred completed EB's with data collected before your conclusions would be meaningful and you could be fairly sure you'd isolated the variation that comes hand in hand with an item giving process that without question does have a random element in it.

Long story long, to draw meaningful conclusions will require rigorous data collection for months.

 

Huge problem with testing is that the item and treasure drops are not included on the EB history. So, there's no way to verify you did it right if you aren't on cc every time you complete. Not only that, but the variables and possibilities are many- if you want to get a meaningful sample size and change one variable at a time- I think you are talking hundreds of EB's.

I tend to think that when the devs said "item drops aren't random" they are referring to the new pots, which are clearly related to your activity. Yeah, it may be that activity correlates to items or treasure, but having participated in dozens of EB's at this point I don't know that whatever added "oomph" to a very low chance is meaningful.

If I were to test the new EB's, I would probably download @RISK (it's an excel macro that runs Monte Carlo analyses), and start by figuring out what the fail rate of the EB's is... In other words, just blow through, say, Destroyer, as quickly as possible and see how many times there is no item, and no treasure, after say 25 or 50 runs. Wash rinse and repeat with the others. Keep it simple, but that should give you a set of ranges on things like total actions, total plunder, and whether it drops or not... From there, you should be able to figure out how many runs it takes to guarantee a drop (develop a factor of safety). Then, at least from a clan perspective, you have some idea of what's involved in getting everyone an item. If you have 40 accounts that are active and that you want to reward with a given item- do you need to run a given EB 200x, or are you looking at 2000x? We just don't know.

My $.02.

 

its easy bella muerte. put all players that have the shield on them and put one player that does not have the shield. this players cannot get it twice so the drop has to go to the ppl that have no shield and now is easier to do this because of the equipment now showing

 

The only way this will work is if u have several clans compiling there info, for the next month, otherwise it will take forever

 

Brilliant idea! This would easily dispell any speculation about the possibility of the drop being connected to a specific HP point of the EB.