Theories on perm drop or treasure in CoD?????

Some exploratory questions: maybe it goes to certain players? Who have done certain things? Maybe it goes to whoever needs it more? Like if they dont have pro packs? Or a reward for spending money on KaW? Or if theyve grown naturally instead of being volleyed? Maybe it has nothing to do with the battle but the players playing it. I still have no items myself

 

Lock this B.S. It's completly random the devs told me so 

 

Then why did kaw say it wasn't "completely random" in WC?

 

It seems pretty clear that it's weighted probability. The more actions you do the higher the odds that you'll get a drop, but the "drawing" is still random in the end. Every theory that's been tested has shown to be wrong. I got my sword and a treasure drop from the same FOD, I used no items, and was 14th in terms of # of actions. It's luck of the draw.

 

The devs statement supports the conclusion that it is simple weighted probability.

 

Sorry, but I gotta pick this apart. This is not an attempt at trolling. It is a counter-argument. I really don't want people getting the wrong idea about this, and I don't want misinformation to spread.

It's "pretty clear" based on what? This statement is pure speculation as it is unsupported by any facts.

Just because certain theories have been proven wrong does not prove your argument that the drop is "random." This is called a non sequitur - a type of fallacious argument.

What does this prove?

It's not luck. I have proof. Kaw came on WC and said "it's not completely random." What proof do you have?

 

Looks like the devs cut back on the item drops. Went from 1 to 2 items for the eb's about 2 out of 3 times to maybe 1 item about 1 out of 10 times. It really sucks now. :cry:

 

Does anyone have a screenshot of what kaw said in wc? I think it would help

 

IIRC correctly, KAW said the more you do, the better your chances of getting an item are (that's paraphrased), which is exactly what I said. We've had time, there have been many FOD's run, there are zero repeating trends. The only thing you can say is that it seems the more actions you do, the higher your odds, which is what KAW said in WC. There's no magical combination of actions that's gonna get you a sword. It's random.

I'm not saying don't try to figure out a system, by all means, have fun, but in the end, I have little doubt that the only correlation in the data you'll find is a slight tendency to reward the most active players.

 

To keep ediots going buts over a item so they can kick back and laughlol mg, I wish u could read the message they sent ME.

 

Listen to Frost.

 

You're repeating the same argument you made before.

 

I wonder if I should keep bumping this post. It seems to make sense, especially considering the fact that people are starting to complain that drops are becoming less and less common as time goes on.

 

It's like a lottery if you did 1000 actions you have 1000 tickets. If you did 1 action you get 1 ticket come on guys

 

So in my opinion (doesnt matter) you should about finish it 1% or so and have everyone except 3mil stats hit and finish...See what happens

 

Okay just got a shield - came in end of phase 2, missed the pots, xtal'd 6 times, 612 actions 5th on list and got the drop finally! Also dropped 3 chests, from having done endless CotD for 8-10 days most common theme seemed to be the faster you complete the better the drop - could be coincidence, but last 4 I did before this were finished in last hour and had no drop... Just sayin', good luck working out the system

 

There's no Kawnami code

 

You mean up up down down left right left right B A doesn't work????? :cry:

 

Although forum states clearly that the perm drop is random. I believe, although not tested, that all item dropping eb's can drop items after every completion by the following condition(s):

1. If all active players that participate in the eb do NOT have that particular item already.

2. I also think that when the random selection occurs(while #1 applies), and if eb completed in a certain time, then multiple drops occurs. I have seen some correlation between clans that have a higher number of players that don't have that item, the eb tends to drop more. And when there are many players that already have the items, I see more frequencies of item not dropping at all.

I believe the random selection keeps going until it selects someone that already has it.

This theory has not been tested, hence, still a theory. I feel this is worth trying out, but it is difficult to get all players in a clan to participate with #1 condition stated above to be applied. Has anyone tested this theory before?