Dts/Dtw matching and clan rosters

Hello everyone, I would like to start discussion here on a topic close to the hearts of many ee warriors and clans.

What are the implications of the % hit ratio algorithm used for matching, and how do we optimise our clan roster with this system in mind?

This has been a source of constant debate and discussion in the clan I war from, and lacking the ability to convey my opinion in chat format I am going to go through what I think of the discussion here.

First: How does the system work?

-Kaw admin has told us that matching is based on total effective stats, i.e. Raw stats plus BFE plus BFA.
-Given your effective strength you cannot attack opponents who are significantly stronger/weaker than yourself.
-A match requires that 90% of pairwise combinations of one player from each clan are such that they are capable of attacking each other.
-There are 29^2 possible pairwise combinations of players from each of two groups of 29. A 90% effective hit ratio means that at least 757 of these 841 combinations of players are capable of attacking each other.

This means:

-If you have a player too strong/weak to hit most of your own war roster, they are likely to also be unable to hit your opponents and will end up largely as a spectator in war.
-If the differences between your largest and smallest players are sufficiently large, it is likely that some of your players will be able to attack very few players, and you are also more likely to face "no match"
-There is no way to predict the likely size/distribution of your opponent. Any distribution of players is equally likely to face a larger or smaller opponent. Any distribution of players is equally likely to face an opponent with a wide or narrow range of build sizes.

Why this is fair

-You cannot adjust your war roster to affect matching in terms of receiving a favourable match. You always have an equal chance of being stronger or weaker than your opponent overall. Sometimes you will be the windscreen, sometimes you will be the bug.
-Attempting to stack the roster in particularly unusual distributions can backfire and reduce the effectiveness of some of your members, or lead to a "no match"

So how to make the most of it?

-To avoid having players unable to hit a lot of the opposing roster, ensure that your clan does not cover too wide a range of effective strengths (for family clans I recommend dividing clans by strength for ee war, this keeps each war roster compact as well as preventing friendly fire).
-Ensure every player is built to be effective at their size. This includes BFA and BFE. If every player on your team has a build that makes the most of their total stats, then your overall team will be as good as it can be for your size. Towers or defence BFE or BFA is wasted if it cannot more than cover the difference between attack and defence pots for example.
-Do NOT limit BFE or BFA arbitrarily. Static stats are better than stats that fall with troops. A guild hansel with full war equipment is stronger in war than an 8m CS hybrid with no equipment. Limiting spy defence BFE on a player with spy defence towers means they are sacrificing plunder for an advantage they could get for free with equipment.

Summary

-You cannot generate better matches by controlling your roster. Sometimes you will face a larger opponent, sometimes you will be larger than your opponent, it is the luck of the draw.
-The quality of your team depends entirely on the quality of the players in it. Good active players with effective builds can generate a win against stronger but less committed fighters.
-Clans who previously relied on their equipment to get them through will now have to face much tougher opponents. This in no way implies that they will be better off if they unequip.


Thanks for reading, and sorry if you think it was a wasted effort. Some of this may seem obvious, or maybe you disagree with my analysis. Please post corrections and/or constructive comments below.

 

Reserved, because that's what the cool kids do.

EDIT:
My major point here is that "It's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, it's the size of the fight in the dog."
Rather than control roster in your clan by size, you should always choose based on the ability of members (provided they fall within reasonable size limits, and are not much bigger or much smaller than the rest of your war roster).

The important considerations for allowing a member to war should be their build quality and their ability. Size does not matter as long as they fit within the rest of your clan.