Dragon Eggs Predictions Wondering how many Dragon Eggs will be required for a specific tier by the end of the event? When examining the growth of each tier in the Dragon Melee Leaderboard updates, I have found that the increases for the number of eggs required for each tier is following an almost exactly linear growth pattern with an extremely high correlation between the date and the number of eggs (the R-squared value is above .99 in for all tiers). If you have no clue what that means, all you need to know is that we can create a mathematical model using linear regression that fits this data very well. Below I have posted the predictions for the egg counts (rounded to nearest egg) required for each tier on June 11th, 2014, the last day of the event, based on the models I have used: Top 5000: 7499 Top 1000: 17151 Top 100: 30103 Top 10: 52587 Top 1: 82335 Please note that these values are predictions based on the past leaderboard updates and are not guaranteed to be accurate. However, if the trends in the data remain the same as they have throughout the event up to now, these predictions should be close. Hopefully these numbers can give egg hunters an idea of where the tier cutoffs will be at the end of the event and help them decide what tiers they can realistically pursue. If anyone has any questions with how I calculated these numbers or wants more data (such as correlation coefficients or not rounded numbers) feel free to pm or wall me.
Frog it wouldn't be that hard. Just put in excel and make a line of best fit. Plug in "X" and results! Would be like 15 minutes max
Exactly what I did. I chose to post the results because I know that lots of the people using KaW have no idea what a linear regression is, let alone how to use one. I suspect many people have already done this and just not posted their results.