Scrolls, math, ... and bad planning by the devs

So, most folks I've talked with agree that scroll drop rates suck. That is basically a given. However, I starting wondering over the last few weeks..."how much do they really suck and what is a realistic expectation for getting the bone dragon equip unlocked?"

That idea/question kept bugging me to the point that I did way too much research, way too much math, and now am going to write up this way too long forum post. If you don't want to read all of this (and I can understand why not) then here are the conclusions:

1) Scroll drop rates from SS, TS, and AFF are in fact just as horrible, or worse, than you think they are.
2) Unless the devs massively change the drop rates, you will never realistically unlock all of the bone dragon equip.
3) The devs apparently failed to give the drop rates any meaningful thought before releasing these ebs (this is not surprising).

This post is not about how the bone dragon equipment sucks (it does for the most part) or asking for the devs to increase the drop rates (they really should, and by a LOT). This is simply my neurotic need to actually get a feel for the reality of scroll drop rates and the likelihood of unlocking the completely mediocre/useless equip.

So, in order to avoid the statistical issue of small sample size as much as possible, I pulled total scroll drops per eb from a number of clans for SS, TS, and AFF. Because some forum users are data Nazi's, below are the clans, ebs done (all in last 13 days of history), and number of scrolls dropped. (This is total scrolls dropped, not number of drops, so double and triple drops are accounted for)

Sucker Punch
SS 9 8
TS 4 6 1 10 4 1 3 1 7 6 1 3 3 4 7 4 2 6
AFF 6 2 3 5 5 3 7 6 2 4 4 5

Knock Out (SP Sub clan)
SS 8 10 10 12 13 13 7 13

Secret Service
SS 4 8 6 8
TS 9 5 1 3 6 13 2 5 6 7 3 3
AFF 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 8 3

No Drama
AFF 7 3 3 5 5 6 7 2 4 3 5 4 4 6 6 5 5 3 0 6 2 9 4

Once We Were Noobs
SS 6 6 6 6
TS 8 5 2 9 5 2 2 2 4 4 12 4
AFF 5 5 6 3 3 6 4 3 5 5 0 4 3 6 6 10 3 6 1 1 3

Theology and Geometry
SS 13 4 7 9 8 3 6 6 7
TS 5 5 7 14 3 1 7 5 5 4 5 8 1 8 3 3 5 3
AFF 3 3 7 3 6 1 3 4 4 2 6 5 5 1 0 4 3 3 5

Assuming I have typed those all in perfectly, that is a total of 173 bone dragon eb's done, 27 SS, 60 TS, and 86 AFF. I also looked at a number of lower strength clans and found that in general, slower/longer ebs do tend to drop 1 or 2 more scrolls per eb in general. However, given that the eb takes 9-11 hours, you're actually going to see a much lower chance of a scroll drop over time even though you may have a larger chance of getting a scroll in any single eb.

So, here are some quick things to take from the data to start.

Smoke Signals
In 27 SS done, there were 216 scrolls dropped for a drop rate of exactly 8 scrolls per eb. SS drops the most scrolls per eb by FAR. However, a decent portion of that (probably around 2-3 per eb) is the double drop of talon ring scrolls...so once you have the ring enchanted, the drop rate becomes just about a bad as TS and AFF for the remaining equip.

The Summoner
In 60 TS done, there were 287 scrolls dropped for a drop rate of 4.78 scrolls per eb. TS drops WAY less scrolls per eb than SS, and again, the drop rate is somewhat inflated by the double or triple drops of mesmeric ring scrolls. Just like SS, once you have the ring, the drop rate becomes really bad for unlocking the rest of the TS equip.

A Familiar Foe
In 86 AFF done, there were 338 scrolls dropped for a drop rate of 3.93 scrolls per eb. AFF drops the least number of scrolls per eb which makes sense as there are no double drops like the rings in SS and TS.

Bone Dragon Series
Overall, of the 173 eb's charted, there were 841 scrolls dropped for a total eb series average of 4.86 scrolls per eb. This is current data. This is after the devs specifically have said in forums, 2 or 3 different times, that scroll drop rates have been increased. I looked at a large number of other clan eb histories and although I did not chart the results, the drop rates were about the same. As stated above, slower eb's dropped a bit more it seemed but the end result over time is worse....cuz it's slower. duh

So, onto some fun math (or not fun really... in fact, it's equal parts annoying, depressing, amazingly stupid by the devs). Some basic things that I saw in the review of all of the clan results:

Most clans seemed to have an average of 85 active participants in the ebs. This varied somewhat but in general, 85 active per eb was around the middle ground.

The average time for completing the eb's varied quite a bit from the strongest clans (2-3 hours) down to those who finished them just in time. In general, it appeared that the "average" good sized clan could get through about 4 per day if they did them b2b, of which, any given clan member would likely be active and hit in 3 of the 4.

So....given an average of 85 active hitters with a drop rate of 4.86 per eb, you have about a 1 in 17.5 (actually 17.4897) chance of getting a single scroll per eb. Or, phrased differently, you can expect, on average, to get one scroll dropped to you for every 17.5 bone dragon eb's you do.

Unfortunately, you'll need 75 scrolls to unlock the currently released equipment. Helm requires 9 scrolls, Armor 9, Gloves 11, Boots 10, Weapon 10, Trinket 9, Talon Ring 8, Mesmeric Ring 9.

So, if you got exactly the scroll drops you needed (no duplicates of what you already have enchanted), you would need to do 1,312.5 bone dragon eb's to unlock the equip. (17.5 eb's per scroll X 75 scrolls needed = 1312.5 ebs) At a rate of 3 per day, if you hit every single day non-stop, it would take 437.5 days or 1.2 years of constant bone dragon eb's to unlock the equip.

However....no one gets perfect scroll drops. In fact, most folks get a stupid number of scrolls for equipment they already have enchanted. Myself, for example. I have 4 main accounts which have a total of 193 scrolls that have been dropped. Of those 193, 50 are duplicate scrolls, mostly ring scrolls, that are just sitting there doing nothing. So, almost 26% of the scroll drops I have seen, have been useless because they are for equip I already have enchanted.

If you have a drop rate of duplicate scrolls equal to mine, you need 1,652.4 bone dragon eb's to reach the full 75 scroll mark. (1312.5 eb's if perfect X 126% for needed scrolls and the 26% useless ones = 1652.4 ebs necessary) At that same rate of 3 per day.....every day.....over and over.....it would take 550.8 straight days of bone dragon eb's or 1.5 years almost exactly.

550 straight days!!! 1.5 years of non-stop bone dragon eb's!!! Hahahahahahahahahahahahhha!!! And that's just for the existing equip. Add another eb or two with more equip and you'll be approaching 2 years of eb's to unlock it all.

So, now you can stop generalizing and saying "dang, scroll drops sure seem to suck" and instead say with certainty, "holy ****, scroll drops are really, actually, horrible".

And maybe, just maybe, one of the devs will read this and say, "dang, we should've considered this when we released these, we should triple or quadruple the scroll drops since the equip is mediocre and already outclassed by the equip we have given away in promos. And heck, since we're fixing this, let's bump the stats from the equip too."

 

Reserved

 

yes, and insomnia. end result is the same though. haha

 

So, now that we're done with hte promo and pvp promo (hopefully only for now), you devs wanna take a look at those drop rates and make a change? eh? maybe? ....